Scotland
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The 2007 Scottish Parliament election was the third general election^[1] to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999. Polling took place on Thursday, May 3, 2007. Local elections in Scotland fell on the same day.

The Scottish National Party emerged as the largest party with 47 seats, closely followed by the incumbent Scottish Labour Party with 46 seats. The Scottish Conservatives won 17 seats, the Scottish Liberal Democrats 16 seats, the Scottish Green Party 2 seats and one Independent (Margo MacDonald) was also elected. The Scottish National Party formed a minority government as a result of the election, with support from the Greens on certain issues.

The Scottish Socialist Party and the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party, which won seats in the 2003 election, lost all of their seats. Former MSP Tommy Sheridan's new party, Solidarity, also failed to win any seats. Margo MacDonald was the only independent MSP to be returned: Campbell Martin and Dr Jean Turner both lost their seats, and Dennis Canavan and Brian Monteith retired.

Background

The main issues during the campaign trail were healthcare, education, council tax reform, pensions, the Union, Trident (the submarines are based in Scotland), the Iraq War and more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Some parties are planning to raise the school leaving age from 16 to 18 and raising the minimum age to purchase tobacco products from 16 to 18.

Jack McConnell, as First Minister, entered the election defending a small overall majority of five seats via a coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Executive coalition government had been in power, with three different First Ministers, since the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999. Opinion polls suggested its majority could be lost in 2007, due to falling support for the Labour Party and rising support for other parties, in particular the Scottish National Party (SNP). The polls suggested that no single party was likely to acquire an overall majority, nor is there an obvious alternative coalition ready to form a new Executive.

Polls suggested that the SNP, second place behind Labour in terms of numbers of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), would gain seats while Labour's support would decline. Based on pre-election projections, there could have been some possibility of an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition, which might have extended to include the Scottish Green Party.^[2][3][4][5]The other parties represented in the Parliament before the election were the Scottish Conservative Party, the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), Solidarity and the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party. (Solidarity is a new party, having broken away from the SSP in 2006.)

Other parties that campaigned for seats in Holyrood included the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the British National Party (BNP), the Scottish Unionist Party, the Scottish Socialist Labour Party, the Christian Peoples Alliance and the Scottish Christian Party.

Election system

There are 73 constituencies, each electing one Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) by the plurality (first past the post) system of election, which are grouped into eight regions. These regions each elect seven additional member MSPs so as to produce an overall proportional result. The D'Hondt method is used to calculate which additional member MSPs the regions elect. Each constituency is a sub-division of a region; the additional members system is designed to produce proportional representation for each region, and the total number of MSPs elected to the parliament is 129.

The election was the first using constituencies (see Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions) that are not identical to constituencies of the House of Commons (Parliament of the United Kingdom). Scottish Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of generally larger constituencies, fewer in number, in 2005.

The Arbuthnott Commission reported in January 2006, concerning the multiplicity of voting systems and electoral divisions in Scotland. Council elections on the same day used Single Transferable Vote for the first time, but there was no change to the Holyrood election system, except regarding use of vote-counting machines, before the 2007 election. Scanners supplied by DRS Data Services Limited of Milton Keynes, in partnership with Electoral Reform Services, the trading arm of the Electoral Reform Society, were used to electronically count the paper ballots in both the Scottish Parliament general election and the Scottish council elections, which took place on the same day.^[6][7]

Election results

discuss – edit
'''Scottish Parliament election, 2007

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-	Total	+/−	%
		664,227	32.9	+9.1	21	+12	633,401	31.0	+10.2	26	+8	47	+20	37.0
		648,374	32.2	-2.5	37	−9	595,415	29.2	-0.1	9	+5	46	−4	37.0
		334,743	16.6	0	4	+1	284,005	13.9	-1.6	13	−2	17	−1	36.2
		326,232	16.2	+0.9	11	−2	230,671	11.3	-0.5	5	+1	16	−1	13.4
		2,971	0.2	+0.2	0	-	82,584	4.0	-2.8	2	−5	2	−5	12.6
	Independent	25,047	1.2	-1.2	0	−2	21,320	1.0	-0.7	1	1	1	−2	1.6
		1,702	0.1	+0	0	-	38,743	1.9	+0.4	0	−1	0	−1	0.8
	Solidarity	-	-	-	-	-	31,066	1.5	+1.5	0	0	0	0	0
		4,586	0.2	+0.2	0	0	26,575	1.3	+1.3	0	0	0	0	0
		-	-	-	-	-	24,616	1.2	+1.1	0	0	0	0	0
		-	-	-	-	-	14,745	0.7	+0.7	0	0	0	0	0
	Socialist Labour Party	-	-	-	-	-	14,244	0.7	-0.4	0	0	0	0	0
		525	0.0	-6.2	0	-	12,731	0.6	-6.1	0	−6	0	−6	0
		-	-	-	-	-	8,197	0.4	−0.2	0	0	0	0	0
	Publican Party	-	-	-	-	-	5,905	0.3	+0.3	0	0	0	0	0
	Scottish Unionist Party	-	-	-	-	-	4,401	0.2	-0.1	0	0	0	0	0
		2,827	0.1	+0.1	0	0	5,955	0.3	+0.3	0	0	0	0	0
	Action to Save St John's Hospital	2,814	0.1	+0.1	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0
	Save Our NHS Group	-	-	-	-	-	2,682	0.1	+0.1	0	0	0	0	0
	Free Scotland Party	575	0.0	+0.0	0	0	664	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Had Enough Party	498	0.0	+0.0	0	0	670	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Scottish Enterprise Party	409	0.0	+0.0	0	0	616	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Adam Lyal's Witchery Tour Party	-	-	-	-	-	867	0.0	−0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Scottish Jacobite Party	309	0.0	+0.0	0	0	446	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers	-	-	-	-	-	615	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
		577	0.0	+0.0	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0
		251	0.0	+0.0	0	0	260	0.0	−0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Independent Green Voice	-	-	-	-	-	496	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Anti-Trident Party	187	0.0	+0.0	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0
	Socialist Equality Party	-	-	-	-	-	139	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Equal Parenting Alliance	124	0.0	+0.0	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0
	Nine Per Cent Growth Party	-	-	-	-	-	80	0.0	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total	2,016,978	51.8	+2.5	73		2,042,109			56		129

Notes: Independents contested 17 seats and three regions. Scottish Greens contested 1 seat, Scottish Socialist Party contested 1 seat, Scottish Christian Party, Scottish Voice etc contested a small number of seats. A number of local issue parties also stood in single constituencies.

Constituency and regional summary

Central Scotland

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Central Scotland
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Airdrie and Shotts	Karen Whitefield	hold
	Coatbridge and Chryston	Elaine Smith	hold
	Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	Cathie Craigie	hold
	East Kilbride	Andy Kerr	hold
	Falkirk East	Cathy Peattie	hold
	Falkirk West	Michael Matheson	gain from Independent
	Hamilton North and Bellshill	Michael McMahon	hold
	Hamilton South	Tom McCabe	hold
	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Willie Coffey	gain from
	Motherwell and Wishaw	Jack McConnell	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Central Scotland
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Alex Neil Linda Fabiani Jamie Hepburn Christina McKelvie John Wilson	5	+2	89,210	31.4%	+8.8%
		Alex Neil Linda Fabiani Jamie Hepburn Christina McKelvie John Wilson	1	±0	24,253	8.5%	-0.6%
		Margaret Mitchell	1	±0	14,648	5.2%	-0.7%

Glasgow

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Glasgow
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Glasgow Anniesland	Bill Butler	hold
	Glasgow Baillieston	Margaret Curran	hold
	Glasgow Cathcart	Charles Gordon	hold
	Glasgow Govan	Nicola Sturgeon	gain from
	Glasgow Kelvin	Pauline McNeill	hold
	Glasgow Maryhill	Patricia Ferguson	hold
	Glasgow Pollok	Johann Lamont	hold
	Glasgow Rutherglen	James Kelly	hold
	Glasgow Shettleston	Frank McAveety	hold
	Glasgow Springburn	Paul Martin	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Glasgow
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Bashir Ahmad Sandra White Bob Doris Bill Kidd	4	+2	55,832	27%	+9.9%
		Bashir Ahmad Sandra White Bob Doris Bill Kidd	1	±0	14,767	7.2%	-0.1%
		Robert Brown	1	±0	13,751	6.7%	-0.8%
		Bill Aitken	1	±0	10,759	5.2%	-1.9%

Highlands and Islands

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Highlands and Islands
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Argyll and Bute	Jim Mather	gain from
	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	hold
	Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber	Fergus Ewing	hold
	Moray	Richard Lochhead	hold
	Orkney	Liam McArthur	hold
	Ross, Skye and Inverness West	John Farquhar Munro	hold
	Shetland	Tavish Scott	hold
	Western Isles	Alasdair Allan	gain from

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Highlands and Islands
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Rob Gibson David Thompson	2	±0	63,979	34.4%	+11.0
	Labour Party	Rob Gibson David Thompson	3	+1	32,952	17.7%	-4.6
		Peter Peacock Rhoda Grant David Stewart	2	±0	23,334	12.6%	-3.4

Lothians

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Lothians
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Edinburgh Central	Sarah Boyack	hold
	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Kenny MacAskill	gain from
	Edinburgh North and Leith	Malcolm Chisholm	hold
	Edinburgh Pentlands	David McLetchie	hold
	Edinburgh South	Mike Pringle	hold
	Edinburgh West	Margaret Smith	hold
	Linlithgow	Mary Mulligan	hold
	Livingston	Angela Constance	gain from
	Midlothian	Rhona Brankin	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Lothians
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Fiona Hyslop Ian McKee Stefan Tymkewycz	3	+1	76,019	26.5%	+10.2
	Labour Party	Fiona Hyslop Ian McKee Stefan Tymkewycz	1	+1	75,495	26.3%	+0.8
		George Foulkes	1	±0	37,548	13.1%	-2.0
		Gavin Brown	1	-1	20,147	7.0%	-5.0
	Independent	Robin Harper	1	±0	19,256	6.7%	-3.5

Mid Scotland and Fife

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Mid Scotland and Fife
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Dunfermline East	Helen Eadie	hold
	Dunfermline West	Jim Tolson	gain from
	Fife Central	Tricia Marwick	gain from
	Fife North East	Iain Smith	hold
	Kirkcaldy	Marilyn Livingstone	hold
	North Tayside	John Swinney	hold
	Ochil	Keith Brown	hold
	Perth	Roseanna Cunningham	hold
	Stirling	Bruce Crawford	gain from

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: Mid Scotland and Fife
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Chris Harvie	1	-1	90,090	33.0%	+10%
	Labour Party	Chris Harvie	3	+3	71,922	26.3%	+1.0%
		John Park Claire Brennan-Baker Richard Simpson	3	±0	44,341	16.2%	-1.3%

North East Scotland

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: North East Scotland
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Aberdeen Central	Lewis Macdonald	hold
	Aberdeen North	Brian Adam	hold
	Aberdeen South	Nicol Stephen	hold
	Angus	Andrew Welsh	hold
	Banff and Buchan	Stewart Stevenson	hold
	Dundee East	Shona Robison	hold
	Dundee West	Joe Fitzpatrick	gain from
	Gordon	Alex Salmond	gain from
	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Mike Rumbles	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: North East Scotland
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Maureen Watt Nigel Don	2	+1	105,265	40.5%	+13.2%
	Labour Party	Maureen Watt Nigel Don	2	±0	52,125	20.0%	-0.1%
		Richard Baker Marlyn Glen	2	−1	37,666	14.5%	-2.9%
		Alex Johnstone Nanette Milne	1	+1	40,934	15.7%	−3.1%

South of Scotland

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: South of Scotland
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Ayr	John Scott	hold
	Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley	Cathy Jamieson	hold
	Clydesdale	Karen Gillon	hold
	Cunninghame South	Irene Oldfather	hold
	Dumfries	Elaine Murray	hold
	East Lothian	Iain Gray	hold
	Galloway and Upper Nithsdale	Alex Fergusson	hold
	Roxburgh and Berwickshire	John Lamont	gain from
	Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale	Jeremy Purvis	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: South of Scotland
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Christine Grahame Michael Russell Adam Ingram Alasdair Morgan Aileen Campbell	5	+2	77,053	27.8%	+9.4%
		Christine Grahame Michael Russell Adam Ingram Alasdair Morgan Aileen Campbell	1	-1	62,475	22.6%	-1.7%
		Derek Brownlee	1	+1	28,040	10.1%	-0.1%

West of Scotland

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: West of Scotland
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Clydebank and Milngavie	Des McNulty	hold
	Cunninghame North	Kenneth Gibson	gain from
	Dumbarton	Jackie Baillie	hold
	Eastwood	Kenneth Macintosh	hold
	Greenock and Inverclyde	Duncan McNeil	hold
	Paisley North	Wendy Alexander	hold
	Paisley South	Hugh Henry	hold
	Strathkelvin and Bearsden	David Whitton	gain from Independent
	West Renfrewshire	Patricia Godman	hold

Scottish parliamentary election, 2007: West of Scotland
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/-	Votes	%	+/−%
		Stewart Maxwell Gil Paterson Bill Wilson Stuart McMillan	4	+1	75,953	28.3%	+8.7%
		Stewart Maxwell Gil Paterson Bill Wilson Stuart McMillan	2	±0	40,637	15.2%	-0.5%
		Annabel Goldie Jackson Carlaw	1	±0	22,515	8.4%	-3.9%

Incidents

Delayed counts

Some counts in the Western Isles (Barra & the Uists) were delayed because the chartered helicopter sent to pick up the ballot boxes was delayed by bad weather. The boxes were instead transferred by sea and road to be counted in Stornoway. The votes were announced around 12.00 on Friday May 4.

Vandalism

A man smashed ballot boxes with a golf club at a polling station at Carrick Knowe in Corstorphine in Edinburgh. About 100 ballots were damaged, some having to be taped back together. The man was arrested on the scene.^[8]

High number of rejected votes

The number of 'invalid' ballot papers has increased dramatically from previous elections, and the BBC reported that almost 142,000 (or 7% of the total votes cast) were rejected.^[9] . The Herald reports that this includes both constituency and regional votes, and hence the number of individual voters is likely to be considerably less. Nevertheless there have been calls for an independent enquiry into the implementation of the new voting system. The BBC Scotland Chief Political Editor, Brian Taylor, described the situation as "a disgrace" during their Election Night coverage.^[10]

Almost certainly the biggest reason for the increase in invalid ballots was that in the vote for the parliament, the ballot papers for the constituency elections were combined with that for the regional lists. A large-type instruction at the top indicated "you have two votes." Being told that they had two votes, far too many voters used both votes on parties in the regional list. ^[11] This misleading ballot was made more complicated by two additional features of the balloting: several small parties like the Green Party ran one or fewer candidates in the constituency seats and parties were able to choose to put the name of their leader in the party label for the list seats. Such poor ballot design decisions contributed to a similarly higher rate of spoiled ballots in the 2000 United States presidential election in areas of Florida such as Miami-Dade and Duval counties.

Another reason presented is that voters were given two papers with two different systems and a different design - one for the parliamentary election where voters marked a cross and one for local councils where they placed numbers as the council elections were being done under the single transferable vote sytem. Undercutting this theory, however, is the fact that the invalid rate in the local elections was far lower despite being the single transferable vote being a new system for most voters.

A third proposed reason has been that this was the first election where electronic counting of papers has taken place. Many blame e-counting for the increase in rejected papers, in part because the new machine counting did not go smoothly, with many counts abandoned during the early hours of Friday morning before all results had been counted. The main company concerned has been DRS Ltd.[1] Nevertheless nearly all invalid ballots would have been spoiled no matter how they were counted. However, the last minute redesign of ballot papers that is blamed for the high number of rejections in two electoral regions was done to make electronic voting easier[2].

Potential legal action

On 5 May 2007, the BBC reported that Labour were considering legal action against some results (particularly Cunninghame North, where the SNP beat Labour by just 48 votes) due to the high number of rejected votes.^[12] Labour withdrew this legal action on 25 May2007. ^[13] A further challenge is expected from Mike Dailly from the Govan Law Centre on behalf of voters in the Glasgow region. He said that the result should be challenged because there were 10,000 rejected ballots which could have caused a different result if they had counted. Solidarity were close to electing one MSP (Tommy Sheridan) and the Greens were a little short of what they needed to gain a second MSP.^[14]

Party leaders

Major parties

At time of dissolution of the Scottish Parliament at midnight on Monday 2 April 2007, there were five party 'groups' represented on the Parliament's Bureau: Labour (50), SNP (25), Conservative (17), LibDem (17), and the Greens (7). There was also one 'mixed' administrative grouping comprised of 5 independent MSPs and 1 Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party MSP.

2007 Scottish Parliament Election - Party Leaders
Scottish National Party		Labour Party		Conservative Party		Liberal Democrats
Alex Salmond Leader of the Scottish National Party		Jack McConnell Leader of the Scottish Labour Party		Annabel Goldie Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party		Nicol Stephen Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
Age	52	Age	46	Age	57	Age	47
Parliament	Scottish Parliament - 2 years (1999-2001) & UK Parliament - 19 years (1987-present)	Parliament	7 years	Parliament	7 years	Parliament	Scottish Parliament - 7 years & UK Parliament - 5 months (1991-1992)
Leader since	1990-2000 & 2004	Leader since	2001	Leader since	2005	Leader since	2005
Profession	Economist	Profession	Teacher	Profession	Solicitor	Profession	Solicitor

Of the major party leaders in the Scottish Parliament, only one, Jack McConnell, of the Scottish Labour Party fought the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election as leader. Nicol Stephen succeeded Jim Wallace as Deputy First Minister and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats in June 2005, after the latter announced that he would not be contesting the 2007 election.^[15] Alex Salmond was elected leader of the Scottish National Party in 2004, with his deputy Nicola Sturgeon.^[16] Salmond previously led the SNP between 1990 and 2000, but stood down and was replaced by his preferred successor John Swinney, who headed the party between 2000 and 2004. After Swinney's resignation in 2004, Salmond announced that he would, once again contest the leadership and won the ballot of members in June 2004. Annabel Goldie was elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives in November 2005^[17] after the resignation of the incumbent David McLetchie on 31 October 2005 after a row surrounding taxi expenses.^[18]

Minor parties

Robin Harper and Shiona Baird were elected as Scottish Green Party Co-convenors in 2004, but as the sole Green MSP Robin Harper was effectively party spokesperson from 1999.^[19]

Colin Fox was elected as the Scottish Socialist Party Convenor in 2005.

Opinion polls

The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election - Greens in Glasgow Kelvin, SSP in Paisley North - so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.

ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov and TNS System Three (a subsidiary of Taylor Nelson Sofres) are all members of the British Polling Council (BPC), and therefore fully disclose the methodology used, and publish tables of the detailed statistical findings. Scottish Opinion (a brand of Progressive Partnership) and mruk are not BPC members.

First (Constituency) Vote
Firm/Client	Date	Labour	Scottish National	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Scottish Socialist	Scottish Green	Others
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2 May 2007	31%	37%	13%	14%	-	-	5%
ICM/Guardian/Scotsman	30 April 2007	32%	34%	13%	16%	-	-	5%
Populus/Times	30 April 2007	29%	33%	13%	15%	-	-	10%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	26 April 2007	30%	39%	13%	15%	-	-	4%
YouGov/ESRC	23 April 2007	30%	38%	12%	15%	-	-	-
YouGov/Sunday Times	20 April 2007	30%	37%	14%	15%	-	-	4%
mruk/Herald	19 April 2007	34%	38%	11%	13%	-	-	-
Populus/Times	17 April 2007	30%	34%	13%	18%	-	-	6%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday	15 April 2007	35%	32%	13%	15%	-	-	-
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday	5 April 2007	28%	40%	17%	13%	-	-	3%
ICM/Scotsman	3 April 2007	27%	32%	13%	19%	5%	-	4%
TNS System Three/STV	1 April 2007	34%	39%	13%	11%	-	-	3%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	28 March 2007	29%	35%	13%	14%	-	-	9%
mruk/Herald	27 March 2007	38%	34%	10%	15%	-	-	3%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail	26 March 2007	28%	34%	11%	11%	-	9%	-
Populus/Times	25 March 2007	28%	38%	14%	15%	-	-	6%
ICM/Scotsman	26 February 2007	29%	34%	16%	16%	1%	-	-
ICM/Scotsman	29 January 2007	31%	33%	13%	17%	3%	-	3%
YouGov/Sunday Times	12 January 2007	29%	35%	13%	18%	1%	2%	2%
YouGov/Channel 4	8 January 2007	31%	33%	14%	14%	1%	5%	4%
ICM/Scotsman	23 November 2006	29%	34%	13%	17%	3%	2%	2%
ICM/Scotsman	30 October 2006	30%	32%	14%	15%	4%	3%	3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail	20 October 2006	32%	35%	11%	16%	2%	-	2%
YouGov/Sunday Times	7 September 2006	30%	29%	14%	18%	2%	5%	4%
TNS System Three/Herald	29 August 2006	36%	28%	12%	17%	4%	3%	-
TNS System Three/Herald	1 August 2006	37%	29%	13%	14%	3%	2%	-
TNS System Three/Herald	4 July 2006	37%	31%	11%	14%	3%	3%	-
Ipsos MORI	1 July 2006	28%	30%	15%	19%	1%	4%	3%
2003 Election		34.9%	23.8%	16.5%	15.1%	6.2%	-	3.5%

Second (Regional) Vote
Firm/Client	Date	Labour	Scottish National	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Scottish Green	Scottish Socialist	Others
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2 May 2007	27%	32%	13%	10%	9%	-	9%
ICM/Guardian/Scotsman	30 April 2007	29%	30%	13%	16%	4%	3%	5%
Populus/Times	30 April 2007	28%	31%	14%	15%	4%	1%	7%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	26 April 2007	27%	31%	13%	11%	9%	3%	7%
YouGov/ESRC	23 April 2007	27%	32%	14%	12%	-	-	-
YouGov/Sunday Times	20 April 2007	28%	35%	13%	13%	-	-	11%
mruk/Herald	19 April 2007	36%	37%	11%	11%	3%	-	-
Populus/Times	17 April 2007	27%	34%	14%	18%	3%	1%	3%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday	15 April 2007	34%	31%	12%	13%	5%	-	-
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday	5 April 2007	28%	39%	14%	10%	4%	1%	4%
ICM/Scotsman	3 April 2007	27%	31%	12%	17%	5%	5%	3%
TNS System Three/STV	1 April 2007	25%	36%	11%	13%	6%	3%	7%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph	28 March 2007	27%	33%	15%	12%	6%	2%	5%
mruk/Herald	27 March 2007	37%	35%	10%	14%	3%	-	1%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail	26 March 2007	28%	32%	10%	11%	10%	-	-
Populus/Times	25 March 2007	30%	35%	14%	14%	4%	1%	2%
ICM/Scotsman	26 February 2007	28%	32%	15%	17%	4%	2%	-
ICM/Scotsman	29 January 2007	27%	33%	14%	17%	5%	3%	2%
YouGov/Sunday Times	12 January 2007	30%	32%	14%	14%	5%	1%	4%
YouGov/Channel 4	8 January 2007	28%	33%	15%	11%	7%	1%	4%
ICM/Scotsman	23 November 2006	26%	31%	12%	19%	6%	4%	2%
ICM/Scotsman	30 October 2006	28%	28%	14%	17%	6%	4%	3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail	20 October 2006	25%	28%	11%	26%	4%	5%	1%
YouGov/Sunday Times	7 September 2006	27%	29%	14%	15%	8%	2%	5%
TNS System Three/Herald	29 August 2006	28%	27%	11%	19%	8%	6%	-
TNS System Three/Herald	1 August 2006	29%	32%	10%	15%	8%	4%	-
TNS System Three/Herald	4 July 2006	29%	33%	9%	17%	5%	5%	-
Ipsos MORI	1 July 2006	26%	28%	16%	19%	6%	1%	4%
2003 Election		29.3%	20.9%	15.5%	11.8%	6.9%	6.7%	9.0%

The Scotsman stated that the findings of their April 3 poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: SNP 44 MSPs (+17), Labour 39 MSPs (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 MSPs (+7), Conservative 15 MSPs (-3).

The Sunday Times (12 January) stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).

Constitutional issue

Several polls have been carried out on whether voters would support independence for Scotland, a key issue in this election and a central policy of the SNP. However, the results of such polls have historically been proven to be sensitive to the wording of the question used.

• On 10 September 2006 The Sunday Times Scotland published an opinion poll^[20] conducted by YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between 5 September and 7 September 2006.^[21] The survey found that 44% were in favour when asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% did not know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.
• A September 2006 poll by the research agency Yougov showed that 44% of respondents said they would back a separate Scotland in an independence referendum compared with 42% who did not.^[22][23][24]
• A poll by The Scotsman in October 2006 suggested that 51% of Scots would be in favour of independence, with 39% against.^[25]
• A Daily Telegraph poll shows that a significant proportion of Britons would accept the breakup of the UK.^[26]
• On 1 November 2006, The Scotsman published an opinion poll^[27] conducted by ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of Scottish independence, with 37% against.

When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by The Times, published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority supprt (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence.^[28] Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).

Other issues

On 4 April the BBC published the findings of a poll it had commissioned from ICM. The 1001 respondents were asked to rank a given list of issues, in the order which they thought "should be the priorities of the new parliament?"^[29][30] The respondents ranked the main issues as follows:

1. Schools/health
2. Police on streets
3. Council tax for 65s+
4. Local hospitals
5. Farming/fishing
6. Young offenders curfew
7. Free school meals
8. Buses/trains (not roads)
9. Scrap tuition fees
10. Community sentences

Top target seats of the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2003 result to change hands.

Many of the seats that changed hands are not listed here. For example, the Scottish National Party gained several seats (Stirling, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Gordon, Livingston and Argyll & Bute) with very large swings, yet did not gain any of their top three targets.

Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2003		Swing to gain	Labour's place 2003	Result
1	Dundee East		Scottish Nationalist	0.17	2nd	SNP hold
2	Edinburgh South		Liberal Democrat	0.26	2nd	LD hold
3	Ochil		Scottish Nationalist	0.49	2nd	SNP hold
4	Strathkelvin and Bearsden		Independent	0.62	2nd	Lab gain
5	Aberdeen North		Scottish Nationalist	0.92	2nd	SNP hold
6	Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber		Scottish Nationalist	1.51	2nd	SNP hold
7	Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale		Liberal Democrat	2.70	3rd	LD hold
8	Ayr		Conservative	2.99	2nd	Con hold
9	Edinburgh Pentlands		Conservative	3.16	2nd	Con hold
10	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross		Liberal Democrat	4.96	2nd	LD hold

SNP targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2003		Swing to gain	SNP's place 2003	Result
1	Galloway & Upper Nithsdale		Conservative	0.17	2nd	Con hold
2	Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale		Liberal Democrat	1.01	2nd	LD hold
3	Cumbernauld & Kilsyth		Labour	1.07	2nd	Lab hold
4	Kilmarnock & Loudoun		Labour	1.92	2nd	SNP gain
5	Dundee West		Labour	2.13	2nd	SNP gain
6	Western Isles		Labour	2.91	2nd	SNP gain
7	Glasgow Govan		Labour	2.92	2nd	SNP gain
8	Aberdeen Central		Labour	2.96	2nd	Lab hold
9	Linlithgow		Labour	3.56	2nd	Lab hold
10	West Renfrewshire		Labour	4.41	2nd	Lab hold
11	Paisley South		Labour	4.91	2nd	Lab hold

Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2003		Swing to gain	Con place 2003	Result
1	Perth		Scottish Nationalist	1.15	2nd	SNP hold
2	Dumfries		Labour	1.71	2nd	Lab hold
3	Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale		Liberal Democrat	2.83	4th	LD hold
4	Eastwood		Labour	4.76	2nd	Lab hold
5	Stirling		Labour	4.86	2nd	SNP gain
6	West Renfrewshire		Labour	4.96	3rd	Lab hold

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2003		Swing to gain	LD's place 2003	Result
1	Edinburgh Central		Labour	4.75	2nd	Lab hold
2	Aberdeen Central		Labour	4.99	3rd	Lab hold

MSPs who retired at the general election

Labour

• Susan Deacon, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html
• John Home Robertson, East Lothian http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6136904.stm
• Janis Hughes, Glasgow Rutherglen http://election.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2248382005
• Kate Maclean, Dundee West http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html
• Maureen MacMillan, Highlands and Islands list http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html

Scottish National Party

• Bruce McFee, West of Scotland list http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html
• George Reid, Ochil http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html

Conservative

• Phil Gallie, South of Scotland list http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html
• James Douglas-Hamilton, Lothians list http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/retiring.html

Liberal Democrats

• Donald Gorrie, Central Scotland list http://election.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2248382005
• Jim Wallace, Orkney http://election.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2248382005

Scottish Socialist Party

• Frances Curran, West of Scotland list http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6512689.stm

Independents

• Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/tayside_and_central/6289637.stm
• Brian Monteith (elected as a Conservative), Mid Scotland and Fife list http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1091&id=1616472006

References

See also

• Elections in Scotland
• National Assembly for Wales election and United Kingdom local elections, 2007, which took place on the same day

External links

• Holyrood 2007, by e-Democracy Centre, Faculty of Law, University of Geneva, with support from the University of Edinburgh
• ScotlandVotes, by Weber Shandwick Public Affairs and Scotland on Sunday
• Scottish Politics, by Alba Publishing
• Scottish Voting Intention, by UKPollingReport, in association with YouGov
• VoteScotland, a Scottish Executive and Electoral Commission website
• Electoral Reform Society - Scotland
• Scottish elections 2007, at the BBC News website
• Election 2007, at The Herald
• Holyrood Elections, at The Scotsman
• Election Supplement 2007
• Scottish Elections Between 1997 and 2007

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